Proč Dow stoupá a pracovní místa mizí?
Why Stocks Are Surging as Jobs Disappear
Since bottoming out in March, the stock market has soared by about 60 percent, one of the most awesome rallies in market history. The cracking 10,000 may not be strategically significant, but it’s a psychological breakthrough that’s worth cheering after the demoralizing crash that preceded it.
While the Dow has been racing upward, however, thehas also skyrocketed, from 8.5 percent in March to 9.8 percent now. The economy has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began at the end of 2007, and the trend is still going the wrong way. The unemployment rate will almost certainly hit 10 percent and hover near there for awhile in 2010, before gradually declining.
So are job losses good for the stock market? Actually, yes. At least for awhile. Stocks are rising because many companies are earning more money than analysts have expected. But earnings aren’t up because companies are selling more stuff; most companies are still selling less stuff and grappling with falling revenue. Instead, earnings are rising because companies have cut their costs more than revenues have fallen. And „costs“ are often the same as „jobs.“ Consider these snippets from some recent earnings reports:
Johnson & Johnson. Third-quarter revenue was down 5.3 percent but net earnings rose 1.1 percent.
Domino’s Pizza. Third-quarter revenue down 6 percent; net earnings up 77 percent.
Third-quarter revenue up 3.5 percent; net earnings up 36.5 percent..
Pepsi. Third-quarter revenue down 1.5 percent; net earnings up 9.5 percent.
Alcoa. Third-quarter revenue up 9 percent, compared with the second quarter; net earnings swung from a $459 million loss to a $124 million profit.